FWN
UFC Predictive Model · Est. 2023

Fighting
With
Numbers

Data-driven UFC picks built from the ground up. Striking efficiency, grappling control, fight pace — every fight scored, tiered, and ready before fight night.

View This Week's Picks How It Works
65.97%
2024 Accuracy
63.80%
2025 Accuracy
—
2026 Record
—
2026 Accuracy
The Model
How It Works
01
Data Collection
Every fighter's stats are pulled before each event — striking rates, grappling control, defensive metrics, fight pace, and strength of schedule. Nothing is guessed.
02
Model Scoring
A weighted formula scores each fighter across 12+ variables. Personal bonus points are applied for intangibles. A logistic regression outputs a win probability for the predicted fighter.
03
Tier Assignment
Every pick is assigned a tier — T1 Elite through T5 Trap for favorites, T1 Live Dog through T3 Dead Dog for underdogs. The tier tells you exactly how much to trust the play.
Tier System
Know What
You're Betting

Not every pick is created equal. The tier system removes the guesswork — each play comes with a confidence grade so you know exactly when to go big and when to stay away.

See This Week's Tiers
T1 Elite
Lock it in.
T2 Strong
High confidence. Solid play.
T3 Volatile
Playable but proceed with caution.
T4 Fragile
Avoid unless desperate.
T5 Trap
Stay away. Model says no.
T1 Live Dog
Real underdog value. Worth a sprinkle.
T2 Puncher's
Sprinkle only if you love the price.
T3 Dead Dog
Hard pass in all formats.
Track Record
The Numbers
Don't Lie
2024 Season
190 — 98
65.97%
2025 Season
178 — 101
63.80%

The model launched officially in 2024 after six months of testing in late 2023. Since then it's called over 350 fights across two full seasons.

Most recreational bettors hover around 50-55% accuracy. Sustained performance above 60% represents a genuine, measurable edge against the market.

Every result is tracked publicly. No cherry-picking. No revisionist history. The dashboard shows every event, every fight, every grade.

View Full Dashboard
About
Rob
Moreno

Fighting With Numbers is a UFC predictive model built by Rob Moreno — someone who's worked inside the sports betting industry and has been handicapping fights for years.

When he started modeling UFC matchups in 2023, almost nobody else was doing it. After six months of testing, the model officially launched in 2024 and hasn't looked back.

Rob is a producer, host, and creative at VSiN, the sports betting network, where he co-hosts First Strike — a weekly UFC betting show. Fighting With Numbers is his independent deep dive into the data behind every fight.

"This isn't a gut-feel parlor. Every pick comes out of a data-driven model built from the ground up. No fluff, no filler. Just the number and what to do with it."
— Rob Moreno, Fighting With Numbers
Follow Along
Find FWN
Everywhere
📝
Substack
Weekly fight breakdowns, model analysis, and betting angles — delivered to your inbox before every card.
Subscribe →
🎙
Podcast
The Fighting With Numbers podcast breaks down each card using the model — tiers, projections, and picks explained out loud.
Watch on YouTube →
🎵
Apple & Spotify
Listen on the go. Available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify — subscribe so you never miss a card.
Listen Now →
▶
First Strike
Rob's weekly UFC betting show on VSiN. Professional analysis, sharp takes, and betting angles every fight week.
Watch on YouTube →
🐦
Twitter / X
Follow @TheRobbeo for real-time picks, model updates, and UFC betting takes throughout fight week.
Follow →
☕
Buy Me a Coffee
If FWN helped your betting night, consider buying Rob a coffee. Every bit of support keeps the model running.
Support FWN →
Ready?
See This Week's Picks

Every fight scored. Every tier assigned. The model's card is ready — go see where it leans.

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