This Week's Card
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Odds subject to change. Always verify before betting.
Tier Guide
T1 Elite
Lock it in.
T2 Strong
High confidence. Solid play.
T3 Volatile
Playable but proceed with caution.
T4 Fragile
Avoid unless desperate.
T5 Trap
Stay away. Model says no.
Live Dog
Real underdog value. Worth a sprinkle.
Puncher's Chance
Sprinkle only if you love the price.
Dead Dog
Hard pass in all formats.
About
Fighting With Numbers is a UFC predictive model built by Rob Moreno — someone who's worked inside the sports betting industry and has been handicapping fights for years. When he started modeling UFC matchups in 2023, almost nobody else was doing it. After six months of testing, the model officially launched in 2024 and hasn't looked back.
2024
190-98
65.97%
2025
178-101
63.80%
This isn't a gut-feel parlor. Every pick on this page comes out of a data-driven model built from the ground up — striking efficiency, grappling control, fight pace, defensive metrics, and more. The model spits out a score for each fighter, a win probability, and a tier grade that tells you exactly how confident it is. No fluff, no filler. Just the number and what to do with it.
Model Performance
Season Dashboard
Event-by-event tracking began March 2026. The season record shown in the header reflects all of 2026.
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