Fighting With Numbers is a UFC predictive model built by Rob Moreno — someone who's worked inside the sports betting industry and has been handicapping fights for years. When he started modeling UFC matchups in 2023, almost nobody else was doing it. After six months of testing, the model officially launched in 2024 and hasn't looked back.
This isn't a gut-feel parlor. Every pick on this site comes out of a data-driven model built from the ground up — striking efficiency, grappling control, fight pace, defensive metrics, and more.
The model scores each fighter across 12+ variables, applies personal bonus points for intangibles, and runs a logistic regression to output a win probability. That probability gets converted into a tier grade — from T1 Elite all the way down to T5 Trap — so you always know how much confidence is behind the pick.
No fluff, no filler. Just the number and what to do with it.
Every fight scored. Every tier assigned. Go see where the model leans this week.
View Picks →